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☆ S&P 500 rebounds to less than 1% from a record after orderly three-week pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The five-month, 28% sprint from the October correction low to the record high on the last trading day of the first quarter left the S & P 500 overbought, overheated and over-loved. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD So far, so good, three weeks down and now three weeks up, taking the S & P 500 back to within 1% of its March 28 peak. More specifically, he tracks the correlation between S & P 500 and the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Fidelity Investments head of global macro Jurrien Timmer fashioned this look at the path of S & P 500 earnings heading into and through each calendar year, with 2024 holding up better than 2023 was last year at this time. The last time the S & P 500 was at today's level above 5200 in late March, the 12-month forward price/earnings multiple was 21.

Persons: that's, Jerome Powell, Scott Chronert, It's, Powell, Lori Calvasina, we've Organizations: U.S, Bank, Citi, Citi U.S, Fidelity Investments, Treasury, RBC Capital

☆ Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer: Two rate cuts are still plausible this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFidelity's Jurrien Timmer: Two rate cuts are still plausible this yearJurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the implications for markets if inflation doesn't reach 2%, what's priced into equities today, and how vital earnings guidance will be.

Organizations: Fidelity Investments

☆ Shifting focus from valuation to earnings growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShifting focus from valuation to earnings growthJurrien Timmer, Fidelity director of global macro, joins 'Fast Money' to discuss the market action and how investors can navigate the recent pullback.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Lingering inflation problem
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Markets declineAsia markets largely fell on Wednesday tracking Wall Street's sell-off overnight after U.S. inflation data came in hotter-than-expected in January. Sony tops estimatesSony 's quarterly revenue topped estimates, getting a boost from its PlayStation gaming business and financial services unit. [PRO] Japan's bull caseJapan is fast emerging on investors' radar, and this has been reflected in the stock market's recent bull run.

Persons: Russell, Joko Widodo, Prabowo Subianto, Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Jurrien, Morgan Stanley Organizations: CNBC, Dow, Nasdaq, Sony, PlayStation, Defense, Metrics, Fidelity Investments Locations: Asia, U.S, Indonesia, Japan

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation's stubborn staying power
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work the floor during morning trading at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) ahead of the US Federal Reserve's decision on lending rates, in New York on January 31, 2024. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Nvidia closed at $721.28 per share, with a market value of $1.78 trillion to Amazon's $1.75 trillion market cap. Bitcoin retreatsCryptocurrencies fell on Tuesday tracking the broader market sell-off. [PRO] Japan's bull caseJapan is fast emerging on investors' radar, and this has been reflected in the stock market's recent bull run.

Persons: Russell, Bob Bakish, Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Jurrien, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New York Stock, Federal, CNBC, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Amazon Nvidia, Amazon, Paramount, Paramount Global, Metrics, Fidelity Investments Locations: New York, Japan

☆ The stock market debate is trapped in the '90s with both bulls and bears drawing comparisons
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Value-investing asset manager GMO last week published a study showing that the top ten S & P 500 stocks by size have handily beaten an equal-weighted pool of the other 490 for several years now. Neither is Microsoft, a useful indicator give that it was the largest stock by market cap both in December 1999 and today. Indeed, today the stock market has done well even as expectations for the speed and depth of rate cuts this year have diminished. (Industrials are leading, the equal-weight S & P is up 19% from October and there were 204 new 52-week highs on the NYSE Friday over 24 new lows.) The S & P 500 uptrend has for weeks targeted the 5050 area, as an immediate culmination point, and it's just about there.

Persons: Morgan, Marko Kolanovic, —, Janus, Stocks, it's, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan, Jerome Powell, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jurrien, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Nvidia, Cisco, Nasdaq, Cisco Systems, Microsoft, Fed, Netscape, Boston, NYSE Locations: Russia, It's, Orange County, Calif

☆ Market leadership is getting even narrower as the 'Magnificent 4' takes over
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Meta's strong earnings has been a major factor in pushing up overall S & P 500 earnings estimates. The S & P 500 is up 4% for the year, but the equal-weight S & P 500 is up only 0.2%. Only about half the stocks in the S & P 500 are up this year. The two main small-cap indices, the Russell 2000 and the S & P SmallCap 600 , are both down 3% for the year. "If the S & P 500 was the Mag 7, it would be trading above 10k now."

Persons: Russell, we've Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, New York Stock Exchange, Software, NVIDIA, Apple

☆ The market will broaden, says Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market will broaden, says Fidelity's Jurrien TimmerJurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the 2024 market outlook, predictions for the Fed's next move, and more.

Persons: Fidelity's Organizations: Fidelity Investments

☆ The stock market's report card one year since the bottom of the 2022 bear market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A report card for the stock market as it approaches one year since the October 2022 bottom of the mini-bear market would probably read, "Good effort, shows perseverance, needs improvement." The equal-weight S & P 500 is up less than 12% from its low. The median stock in the index is up between 3% and 4% over the past 12 months. All four times since 1979, the S & P 500 and Russell 2000 were both higher in the fourth quarter. The S & P 500 is now at 17.7-times 12-month forward profit forecasts, according to FactSet, down from almost 20 in late July.

Persons: Doug Ramsey, Russell, Stephen Suttmeier, Jurrien Timmer, Stocks Organizations: Leuthold, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Fidelity Investments, Fed, Federal Reserve, Deutsche, Treasury

☆ The market is 'legit' oversold now, says Fidelity Investments' Jurrien Timmer
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market is 'legit' oversold now, says Fidelity Investments' Jurrien TimmerJurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what could be confirming the action behind bond yields, whether Timmer's willing to put a 12-month target for equities, and more.

Organizations: Fidelity Investments

☆ What soft landing? Stocks are acting like there's a rough road ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

For the most part, the market has paid little attention, but this time the message seems to have hit home. Banks stocks have been weak, and even former leaders in industrials like Parker Hannifin have been down. Fewer than 50% of NYSE stocks are above their 200-day moving average. Energy stocks are up, but even they have been selling off in the last week, despite the rise of oil. "Rising interest rates have made commodities-related areas, from industrial metals to energy, interesting for the time being," Timmer noted.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Russell, Parker, Frank Gretz, Timmer, Lowry Organizations: UAW, Retail, Airlines, JETS, Transports, Banks, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, Wellington, Commodities, Energy Locations: Banks, industrials, Taiwan, Wellington Shields, mused

☆ The bond market does look somewhat compelling here, says Fidelity Investments' Jurrien Timmer
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bond market does look somewhat compelling here, says Fidelity Investments' Jurrien TimmerJurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's rate hike decision later today, and more.

Organizations: Fidelity Investments

☆ Bond market's term premium is what's driving yields higher, says Fidelity Investment's Timmer
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBond market's term premium is what's driving yields higher, says Fidelity Investment's TimmerJurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what's happening in the bond market, the bond market's pressure on equities, and more.

Organizations: Fidelity Investments

☆ These factors will be big market drivers in the final five months of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Consider: The S & P 500 hasn't seen a 1% down day in two months . The S & P 500 is going to close higher for five consecutive months. The S & P 500 advance/decline line, which measures the daily activity of how many stocks are advancing versus declining, has been rising steadily for the past two months. The triumph (so far) of the soft landing has enabled earnings estimates to stabilize. The soft landing data must continue .

Persons: It's, What's, Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Gretz, Alec Young, Young, Jerome Powell's, Timmer, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak Organizations: PCE, Bulls, Tactical Alpha, Fed, Fidelity Investments Locations: Wellington

☆ Nearly 4 in 5 US companies have posted second-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street estimates
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

As of Monday, 87 companies had reported their Q2 earnings – 78% of which beat analysts' expectations. Some of the biggest names to beat the Street this quarter are Tesla, Bank of America, and Philip Morris. The good news: 78% percent of them beat estimates, by an average 6.2%. Among the biggest names, Tesla reported a 20% earnings jump to 91 cents per share, surpassing analysts' estimate for 82. While earnings estimates have, for most companies, beaten targets, Fidelity's Timmer warns investors not to get carried away.

Persons: Philip Morris, It's, Jurrien, Jurrien Timmer, Timmer, Tesla, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Bank of America, Fidelity, Service, Microsoft, Fidelity Investments, Meta Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Sensing end of Fed hikes, some investors return to dividend stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That has helped pressure many of the market’s popular dividend-paying stocks, which investors had turned to when rates were far lower. "The dividend-paying value side of the market is a pretty compelling place to go to maintain that return." Nevertheless, investors are seeking out dividend-paying stocks as a source of total return this year in anticipation that bond yields may falter while stocks continue to gain, Silverblatt said. “If you are going into dividend paying stocks now, you are taking that risk because you think there's a high probability that the market goes up," he said. Corso is searching for dividend-paying companies in cyclical sectors such as financials, where valuations are less expensive.

Persons: Jurrien Timmer, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt, hadn't, Cliff Corso, Corso, Bryant VanCronkhite, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fidelity Investments, BoFA Global Research, Dow Jones Indices, Companies, Asset Management, Fed, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson

☆ Stocks that were leading on the way up are leading the way down, says Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStocks that were leading on the way up are leading the way down, says Fidelity's Jurrien TimmerJurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss earnings expectations for the remainder of the year, market sentiment supportive of further gains, and the unusual market recovery.

Persons: Fidelity's Organizations: Fidelity Investments

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Fidelity's Jurrien TimmerJurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss earnings expectations for the remainder of the year, market sentiment supportive of further gains, and the unusual market recovery.

Persons: Fidelity's Organizations: Fidelity Investments

☆ Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer: The market has gotten impatient
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFidelity's Jurrien Timmer: The market has gotten impatientJurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss a weakening macro backdrop, the market effort to declare a bullish direction, and the duration of the current trading range.

Persons: Jurrien Timmer Organizations: Fidelity Investments

☆ Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer: Here are the three things we need for a bull market
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFidelity's Jurrien Timmer: Here are the three things we need for a bull marketJurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what Timmer would need to see to confirm the equity markets have hit lows and more.

Organizations: Fidelity Investments

☆ Fed pausing rate hikes would trigger an equity rally, says Allspring's Jacobsen
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed pausing rate hikes would trigger an equity rally, says Allspring's JacobsenBrian Jacobsen, Allspring Global Investments, and Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the difference between goods and services, if a rate hike pause would spell good news for equities and more.

☆ It's too early for a 'pivot party' on inflation and rates, says UBS' Alli McCartney
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's too early for a 'pivot party' on inflation and rates, says UBS' Alli McCartneyFidelity Investments' Jurrien Timmer and UBS Private Wealth Management's Alli McCartney joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss markets activity after todays PPI report, valuations in 2023, and institutions taking on risk.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Fidelity Investments' Jurrien Timmer and UBS' Alli McCartney
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Fidelity Investments' Jurrien Timmer and UBS' Alli McCartneyFidelity Investments' Jurrien Timmer and UBS Private Wealth Management's Alli McCartney, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss markets activity after todays PPI report, valuations in 2023, and institutions taking on risk.

☆ Strong earnings will be an important underpinning for the market going forward, says Fidelity's Timmer
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrong earnings will be an important underpinning for the market going forward, says Fidelity's TimmerJurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments director of global macro, joins 'TechCheck' to discuss how the Q3 season earnings could play out, how earnings typically hold up with inflation and if earnings estimates have baked in the strength of the U.S. dollar.

☆ The signs traders are watching to signal the stock market has bottomed
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"Based on the combined inputs of the nominal 2-year and real 10-year, my best guess is that the S & P 500 is worth 14.3x fwd EPS. With the S & P closing at 3,693 Friday, that's about 8% lower. The big moves in the dollar are just killing emerging market funds. The largest, iShares Core Emerging Market ETF (IEMG), hit a better than 2-year low on Friday. And as the Dollar Index has risen roughly 4% this month alone, the emerging market ETFs have dropped too.

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